How We Read Injury Reports
Why a "Questionable" running back and a "Questionable" quarterback are not the same bet.
The Designation System
The NFL injury report uses three game-day designations: Out, Doubtful, and Questionable. Teams are required to publish these by Friday afternoon (for Sunday games), updated through the weekend.
A fourth designation — Probable — was removed by the NFL in 2016. It carried a ~97–98% play rate and added noise without helping anyone make a real decision. Removing it collapsed the ambiguity into three buckets, with Questionable absorbing the most uncertainty.
Why Questionable Is Ambiguous
"Questionable" is the widest bucket by design. It covers everything from "tweaked an ankle Thursday, will play Sunday" to "didn't practice all week, true coin flip." Teams use it strategically — competitive integrity rules require honest reporting, but the ambiguity gives teams cover for gamesmanship around game plans and active-roster decisions.
The result: a "Questionable" tag alone doesn't tell you whether to start, stash, or drop. The real-world play rate varies significantly by position — a Questionable QB plays far more often than a Questionable RB.
The Practice Report Ladder
Before the final designation, teams file daily practice participation reports: DNP (Did Not Participate), Limited, or Full. This is the ladder from Wednesday through Friday:
- Full all week → almost always plays
- Limited → trending toward playing, but position matters
- DNP all week → historically less likely to play, even if listed as Questionable
OuchWire shows practice participation badges alongside the play-probability chip so you see both the designation's historical base rate and the current week's practice trend.
Our Base-Rate Table
We translate each designation + position into a historical play-rate range. These are base rates — how often players with that tag actually suit up — not a prediction about this specific player this specific week.
| Status | Position | Historically Plays |
|---|---|---|
| Out | all | Will not play |
| Doubtful | all | 20–30% |
| Questionable | QB | 85–90% |
| Questionable | TE | 65–75% |
| Questionable | WR | 60–70% |
| Questionable | RB | 55–65% |
| Questionable | all other positions | 55–70% |
Position matching uses the player's listed position. If position is null or unknown, the "all other positions" row applies.
Why Ranges, Not Point Numbers
We show ranges ("55–65%") rather than a single number because a point number implies a precision the data doesn't support. The range communicates the spread of historical outcomes — some Questionable RBs play 50%, some play 70%, and the middle is where most land.
If we showed "60%" as a point number, you'd treat it as a prediction. It isn't. It's the midpoint of a range built from multiple seasons of league-wide tracking. The range tells you the uncertainty; the midpoint gives you a center of mass.
Our Sources
- Pro Football Reference — multi-season play-rate tracking by designation
- Sharp Football Analysis — position-specific play-rate breakdowns
Base rates last reviewed: September 2026. The table is refreshed manually each offseason — no external API dependency, no daily drift. The Probable designation (~97–98% play rate) was removed by the NFL in 2016 and is not included.
A base rate, not a prediction.
The chip on each injury card tells you how often players with that designation and position actually play. It's a starting point — combine it with the practice report, the player's specific injury, and your own matchup context to make the call.